China Water Resources

Risk analysis and prevention strategies for digital-intelligent water conservancy applications

As the application of digital-intelligent technologies in China's water conservancy sector gradually transitions from pilot exploration to a new stage of systematic development, these technologies are becoming deeply embedded in the critical junctures of daily management, operational decision-making, and engineering control. While this integration substantially enhances governance effciency, it also exposes system operations to emerging risks and vulnerabilities. To systematically identify the risks inherent in digital-intelligent water conservancy applications and ensure their safe, reliable, trustworthy, and controllable operation, this study, based on the architecture and operational principles of digital twin water conservancy, identifies six strong dependency characteristics of these applications—namely, on data, models, computing power, networks, knowledge, and centralized control. The study further reveals the composite challenges arising from these dependencies, including data risks, model risks, computing risks, knowledge risks, network risks, and centralized-control risks. In response, a multi-dimensional risk prevention and control framework is proposed from four interconnected dimensions—institutional development, technical safeguards, capacity building, and resilience enhancement. Key measures encompass the formulation of national strategies and comprehensive security frameworks, the improvement of laws, regulations, and standards, the establishment of collaborative oversight and third-party audit mechanisms, full life-cycle data governance, trusted AI and comprehensive model governance, the development of autonomous and resilient computing power and network infrastructure, organizational restructuring and process re-engineering, the cultivation of digital-intelligent talent, humanmachine collaboration and knowledge management, the design of federal hybrid resilient architectures, routine red team vs. blue team cyber defense exercises, and the development of extreme scenario emergency plans. This research provides technical support for preventing and mitigating systemic risks in digital-intelligent water conservancy applications.

Analysis and discussion on the safety situation and measures for improving flood control capacity of homogeneous earth dams

China ranks frst in the world in terms of the number of reservoir dams. Homogeneous earth dams constitute one of the important dam types in China, most of which were built between the 1950s and 1970s. Affected by factors such as low design standards at that time, limited construction conditions, and long-term operational aging, these dams currently suffer from low design flood standards, prominent flood discharge defciencies, and weak collapse resistance of downstream dam slopes. Dam failures of homogeneous earth dams accounted for 85% of the total number of dam failures nationwide from 1954 to 2021, with overtopping erosion being the primary cause. With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the flood control standards of homogeneous earth dams are struggling to adapt to current climatic conditions, and the flood control defciencies are becoming increasingly prominent. In 2026, incidents at the Liulan Reservoir and other projects in Guangxi exposed the widespread problem of insufficient flood control capacity among similar projects in China when coping with extreme rainfall-induced floods. Based on national dam failure statistics and an analysis of the current safety status of homogeneous earth dams, combined with the challenges facing their flood control safety, this paper proposed a set of systematic measures: raising the flood control design standards, enhancing the capacity for exceeding flood discharge, implementing anti-scour protection and retroftting of dam crests and slopes, optimizing and improving the slope drainage system, upgrading the automatic dam monitoring system, improving forecasting and early warning mechanisms, and refning the emergency response mechanism for overtopping incidents. These measures are intended to address the flood control defciencies of homogeneous earth dams, fundamentally enhance their flood control and disaster resistance capabilities, and provide technical references for the risk removal and reinforcement of such dams in China.

Key technologies of coupling and integration of “three defense lines” for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting with “four pre” for flood control

Accelerating the establishment of the “three defense lines” for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting and the “forecast, early-warning, rehearsal and contingency planning”(“four pre”) system for flood control is important for advancing the development of digital twin water conservancy and enhancing the capacity for flood and drought disaster prevention. To solve problems including data barriers, insuffcient fusion of computational data, and poor connection between forecasting and operation scheduling in the practice of the “three defense lines” and “four pre”, this paper sorted out their chain relationship and proposed a key technical system for their coupling and integration. Based on the full-chain perception system of “precipitation in clouds, surface precipitation, and river runoff” composed of meteorological satellites, rain radars, rain gauge networks and hydrological station networks, this paper proposed collaborative networking and computational data correction methods for the “three defense lines”, and developed technologies including multi-source rainfall fusion, multi-temporal-spatial scale flood forecasting, progressive dynamic early warning, and a three-chain coupled operation mode. Focusing on flood forecasting demands for different forecast lead times, this paper established a driving mechanism integrating radar extrapolation, numerical weather forecasting and observed rainfall and water regime data. Small-scale fused rainfall data improves the short-term forecasting capacity of mountain floods and small & medium river floods, while medium and large-scale fused rainfall combined with hydrological monitoring can support the forecasting evolution of river floods. By taking the digital-twin Nangang River in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong as a case, this paper carried out the construction and application of the “three defense lines” and “four pre” for flood control in watersheds. The results show that the proposed mode can improve flood forecasting and scheduling capacity for small & medium rivers, and provide reference for the construction of digital twin water conservancy systems.

A multi-paradigm flood forecasting and operation system for the Haihe River basin under strong disturbances

The Haihe River basin occupies a strategically prominent position, underpinning multiple major national strategies. Characterized by distinctive natural conditions and subjected to intensive disturbances from multiple sources, and against the backdrop of global climate change, the basin has experienced frequent extreme flood disasters in recent years. Traditional flood forecasting and operation methods can no longer meet the requirements of precise flood prevention and control. This study focuses on three core challenges under strong disturbance conditions: insuffcient precision in precipitation forecasting, diffculty in unifying the accuracy and lead time of flood forecasting, and poor synergy between intelligence and effciency in forecasting and operation. Following the roadmap of “problem orientation—demand traction—technological breakthrough—application priority”, a multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation system is constructed. To address the issues of inconsistent spatial scales and discontinuous temporal scales in model-based precipitation forecasts, as well as the large uncertainty and insuffcient refnement in rainfall location forecasting, a seamless precipitation forecasting technology system tailored to the characteristics of the Haihe River basin was developed. This system breaks through the bottlenecks of low extrapolation accuracy and short effective duration in nowcasting, and overcomes the challenges of low spatiotemporal resolution in short term precipitation forecasting and large uncertainties in rainfall intensity and location forecasting for short and medium term periods. To tackle the problems of severe disturbances from diverse natural and social factors on flood runoff generation, concentration and routing, as well as the poor adaptability, low accuracy and short operation timeliness of conventional forecasting and operation models, This study proposes the matrix based “Haihe Model” for multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation under strong disturbances, which raises the flood forecasting accuracy at key nodes in the basin from 70% to over 85%. To overcome the diffculties in dynamic and intelligent regulation of water conservancy project groups and the insuffcient systematicness and timeliness of decision support, an intelligent flood control decision making platform for the Haihe River basin was developed. It enables rapid and intelligent decision making for the safe operation and optimal scheduling of flood control projects, addresses the challenges of “multiple parameters, large variables, and low effciency” in forecasting and operation models, and enhances flood control decision making effciency from the hour level to the minute level. The research results have demonstrated notable effectiveness in practical flood defense operations, including the consecutive summer autumn floods of the Zhangwei River in 2021, the “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Haihe River basin, and the “25·7” regional major flood in the Haihe River basin, providing critical technical support and theoretical references for basin wide flood disaster mitigation.

China's virtual water strategy: value review, scientific positioning, and implementation recommendations

Virtual water provides an important perspective for revealing the embedded water flows in goods and services, offering a new dimension for analyzing water resources allocation and regional water security. This study fnds that China's virtual water flow patterns have undergone a fundamental transformation. At the international level, China has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer of virtual water. Domestically, a pronounced “north-to-south virtual water transfer” pattern has emerged, with northern regions exporting an annual average of approximately 42.6 billion m³ of virtual water to the south through the transfer of waterintensive agricultural products. These changes indicate that virtual water has profoundly influenced China's water resources allocation, industrial layout, and water security pattern. Although the virtual water strategy can help alleviate local water stress, identify conflicts between industrial layout and water resource carrying capacity, and promote regional collaborative governance, its application is subject to multiple constraints, including food security, the stage of economic development, data accounting, and the multifunctional attributes of water resources. The analysis indicates that the virtual water strategy should not be viewed as a substitute for physical water management; rather, it should be scientifcally positioned as a supplementary governance tool for optimizing water resources allocation and identifying water-related risks. Currently, China's virtual water governance still faces challenges, including insuffcient systemic understanding, inadequate integration of its strategic value, ineffective identifcation of hidden risks, and underdeveloped cross-regional coordination mechanisms. It is recommended that, on the basis of prioritizing food security and water conservation, institutional development in areas such as virtual water accounting, planning and assessment, and supply chain risk early warning should be advanced, supported by industrial upgrading, thereby promoting the coordinated implementation of virtual water and physical water management.

Baseline survey and analysis of characteristic pollutants along the Wangyu River

The Wangyu River is a key conduit of the Yangtze-to-Taihu water diversion project, and its water quality is directly related to the water supply security of the Taihu Lake basin. In this study, a comprehensive baseline survey was conducted simultaneously along the main stem and tributaries of the Wangyu River and the Gonghu water source, targeting four categories of characteristic pollutants—heavy metals, algal toxins, plasticizers, and emerging contaminants—to investigate their spatial distribution and variation patterns. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in pollutant concentrations from the Wangyu Sluice toward the Gonghu Lake. The sluice, serving as the entry point of the diverted flow, is identified as the primary source of heavy metals and plasticizers, while the tributaries along the Wangyu River corridor emerge as potential risk zones for algae and emerging contaminants. Based on the spatial distribution characteristics of the pollutants, differentiated control measures were proposed for three types of risk zones: the area near the sluice, the tributary regions, and the Gonghu water source area. For the vicinity of the sluice, point-source interception of industrial antimony and plasticizers along with routine online monitoring is recommended. For the tributary areas, enhanced management of nitrogen and phosphorus non-point sources coupled with algal early warning systems and emergency odor-removal treatment processes should be implemented. For the Gonghu water source area, a long-term monitoring mechanism for microcystins and perfluorooctanoic acid(PFOA) should be established. Although constrained by the limited spatiotemporal representativeness of a single sampling campaign and the absence of monitoring of sediment analysis and PFOA homologues, this baseline survey provides fundamental data for coordinated water quantity–quality regulation of the Yangtze-to-Taihu water diversion project. It also points toward future research directions, including long-term monitoring, sediment–water interface flux studies, and systematic assessment of emerging contaminants.

Dynamic identifcation of the end of Meiyu period and post-food season in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River for real-time forecasting and operation

In the context of global climate change, the seasonal flood patterns in the Yangtze River basin have become increasingly complex, rendering traditional static flood season delineation methods insufficient for the refined operation requirements of reservoirs. To improve the utilization efficiency of floodwater resources, this paper proposed a dynamic identification method for the post-flood season in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, oriented to real-time forecasting and operation. The study constructed a comprehensive index system for the end of Meiyu period in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which includes rainfall indicators and atmospheric circulation indicators. By comprehensively adopting multiple methods such as statistical staging theory, rising and falling water classifcation analysis, and trend division-ranking analysis of hydrological factors, key hydrological discrimination conditions for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River entering the post-food season, such as water level and discharge, were proposed. A long short-term memory network model was used to simulate the operation process of the Three Gorges Reservoir, and the food control risk of the dynamic control of the operation water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the post-food season was evaluated. The results indicate that the proposed dynamic discrimination technique introduces no food control risk in measured major food years in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, such as 1954, 1998, and 2020, and can effectively advance the time when the middle reaches of the Yangtze River enter the post-food season in typical dry years, such as 1972, 1978, 2006, and 2022, on the premise of ensuring food control safety. The results of stochastic runoff experiments also demonstrate that when the Three Gorges Reservoir adopts the dynamic control and operation strategy of the operation water level in the post-food season, the food control risks at the Lianhuatang and Shashi stations are approximately 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, and the overall risks are manageable. The research results can provide a scientifc basis for the post-food season operation of cascade reservoirs such as the Three Gorges Reservoir.

Pilot studies and reflections on deep groundwater recharge and restoration in North China

Overdraft of confined deep groundwater remains a serious issue in North China, where natural recovery is difficult due to limited recharge and slow renewal of deep aquifers. This has led to the long-term existence of groundwater depression cones, further triggering a series of ecological damages and geological hazards such as ground subsidence and seawater intrusion, exerting ongoing impacts on regional production, livelihoods, and ecological security. To address the groundwater depletion caused by long-term overdraft, a coordinated “point-line-area” approach and a comprehensive governance and restoration model integrating “suppression, recharge, and reinjection” have been proposed. This paper introduces the conditions and progress of recharge experiments conducted at four established pilot sites, and summarizes the findings and outcomes of a series of thematic studies carried out in conjunction with these recharge trials. Existing challenges of the pilot projects are identified, including short experimental durations,insufficient research, unoptimized water sources, and the need for improved test site conditions. In response, several targeted recommendations are proposed: extending the duration and depth of experimental studies, optimizing recharge areas and water sources, advancing research on anti-blocking and permeability-enhancement technologies,strengthening scientific and technical support, evaluating recharge effectiveness, improving research platform infrastructure, and increasing dedicated financial support, aiming to provide experiences for systematic recharge and restoration of deep groundwater and ensure sustainable utilization of groundwater resources.

Speech at the Symposium on Ecological Protection and High-quality Development of the Yellow River Basin

Water Rights and Water Markets: Discussing Economic Means for Achieving Optimal Allocation of Water Resources

This article serves as a speech outline prepared for the 2000 annual conference of the China Institute of Water Resources. On March 30, 1999, during the Seventh National Congress of the China Institute of Water Resources, I presented the viewpoint of "transitioning from engineering water resources to resource-based water resources." That speech cannot be considered a purely academic theoretical article; rather, it was a set of requirements for water resources work based on the practical development of water resources. It aimed to initiate a major discussion on "how China's water resources should face the 21st century" and fulfilled my responsibilities as a leader. Similarly, "Water Rights and Water Markets", although discussing issues of water economics, does not make me an expert in this field. Instead, the urgent demand for the reform and development of water resources in China requires us to research and address such topics. I have merely laid the groundwork to draw attention to this issue.

The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021—2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of P. R. China

Analysis of Water Supply and Demand in 21st Century China: Ecological Water Conservancy Research

Facing the resource and environmental challenges in 21st-century China, the issue of water is particularly severe. Scarcity and wastage coexist; abundance and ecological imbalance coexist; contamination and poor management coexist. In fact, there are interconnected and transformative relationships among water resources, water disasters, and water environments. Water, as a core element of ecology and the environment, has positive effects when utilized efficiently as a water resource. However, fluctuations in its abundance and scarcity can lead to water-related disasters, while its quality evolution is closely related to water management and environmental protection efforts...

River health connotation

River health, as one of the river assessment tools, rather than a strictly scientific concept performs a well function in setting up relative bench mark and evaluable criterion, Based on it , river ecosystem states , which varies under double actions of nature force and human activity, could be dynamically monitored and evaluated in order to predict its revolution trend through research and prompt its well development through management. The river health assessment should exhibit the balance between development and protection, the benefit coordinating among correlatively interested individuals and groups. Since water pollution becomes the severest threat to river health in our country, so at present stage of our ecologic environmental construction , its control and treatment should be put in the first place.

A preliminary discussion of the engineering ethics and advanced cultural in Dujiang Weir

The Chinese people has thousands years of history for water governance.The practices of water governance,utilization and management of successive dynasties have left us with rich material,institutional and spiritual wealth.In order to explore the multiple values of this world cultural heritage,discussions are made on the contribution of those outstanding water projects represented by Dujiang Weir,so that Chinese wisdom and China's plan can be developed to address issues of imbalance between water supply and demand and other water crisis.Eco-friendly water project construction in the new age should be led by advanced water culture,with learning from good practices of Dujiang Weir from conservation and cultural prospective,so as to build a society with harmony of man and water and water structures in a modernized and eco-friendly ways.

Human activity and the global climate change and its impact on water resources

In understanding the effect of human activity on the global climate change for recent 100 years, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has played a key role. During 17 years from 1990, IPCC has continuously gained insight into better understanding on the global climate change during the recent 100 years mainly caused by human activity, with its four assessment reports. This achievement has been made with provision of three aspects of evidences: (1) rapid increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial era (after 1750); (2) temperature rise or warning of surface, tropospospere and oceans; (3) 100-yr climate simulations since 1900 for detection and attribution of the past climate change. These results have shown that recent 100-yr warming is jointly caused by natural climate fluctuation and anthropogenic activity, but most of recent 50-yr climate change is caused by the authropogenic activity. The present paper has first reviewed this issue. Then, the debates and uncenrtainties of global climate change issue have been discussed. The global climate change has had a significant impact on global water resources and management. This issue is further discussed based on changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and evapotranspiration, which may be a necessary scientific basis for adaptation.

Discussions on key issues of water ecological civilization construction

How to understand water ecological civilization construction? On the basis of the interpretation of the spirit of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,this paper analyses and discusses several key issues of water ecological civilization as follows.First,the definition and connotation of water ecological civilization are given and the links between water ecological civilization construction and ecological civilization construction proposed by the state are elaborated.In addition,this paper analyses the crucial issues which should be paid attention to during the process of advancing water ecological civilization,and proposes specific recommendations to help to make the 5 goals of water ecological civilization come to be realized.

Speech at the Symposium on Ecological Protection and High-quality Development of the Yellow River Basin

The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021—2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of P. R. China