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The Haihe River basin occupies a strategically prominent position, underpinning multiple major national strategies. Characterized by distinctive natural conditions and subjected to intensive disturbances from multiple sources, and against the backdrop of global climate change, the basin has experienced frequent extreme flood disasters in recent years. Traditional flood forecasting and operation methods can no longer meet the requirements of precise flood prevention and control. This study focuses on three core challenges under strong disturbance conditions: insuffcient precision in precipitation forecasting, diffculty in unifying the accuracy and lead time of flood forecasting, and poor synergy between intelligence and effciency in forecasting and operation. Following the roadmap of “problem orientation—demand traction—technological breakthrough—application priority”, a multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation system is constructed. To address the issues of inconsistent spatial scales and discontinuous temporal scales in model-based precipitation forecasts, as well as the large uncertainty and insuffcient refnement in rainfall location forecasting, a seamless precipitation forecasting technology system tailored to the characteristics of the Haihe River basin was developed. This system breaks through the bottlenecks of low extrapolation accuracy and short effective duration in nowcasting, and overcomes the challenges of low spatiotemporal resolution in short term precipitation forecasting and large uncertainties in rainfall intensity and location forecasting for short and medium term periods. To tackle the problems of severe disturbances from diverse natural and social factors on flood runoff generation, concentration and routing, as well as the poor adaptability, low accuracy and short operation timeliness of conventional forecasting and operation models, This study proposes the matrix based “Haihe Model” for multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation under strong disturbances, which raises the flood forecasting accuracy at key nodes in the basin from 70% to over 85%. To overcome the diffculties in dynamic and intelligent regulation of water conservancy project groups and the insuffcient systematicness and timeliness of decision support, an intelligent flood control decision making platform for the Haihe River basin was developed. It enables rapid and intelligent decision making for the safe operation and optimal scheduling of flood control projects, addresses the challenges of “multiple parameters, large variables, and low effciency” in forecasting and operation models, and enhances flood control decision making effciency from the hour level to the minute level. The research results have demonstrated notable effectiveness in practical flood defense operations, including the consecutive summer autumn floods of the Zhangwei River in 2021, the “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Haihe River basin, and the “25·7” regional major flood in the Haihe River basin, providing critical technical support and theoretical references for basin wide flood disaster mitigation.
China's groundwater reserve system is still in its infancy. Groundwater reserve involves a longterm, low-frequency dynamic process. The development of the groundwater reserve system urgently requires addressing several key technical issues. Based on an investigation of the maintenance, utilization, and recovery processes of groundwater reserve, this study proposes two buffering concepts: buffer water volume and buffer time. The buffer water volume reflects the relationship between groundwater storage volume and reserve volume within the combined groundwater reserve and buffer spaces, which is represented by the water volume buffering coefficient. Buffer time reflects the extension of the guaranteed water-supply duration during the groundwater reserve utilization period due to induced recharge, and this effect is comprehensively represented by the time buffering coeffcient. On the basis of conceptual interpretation, quantitative methods for evaluating the buffering coeffcients are proposed, including theoretical formulas, parameter sets, and scenario simulation techniques. In theory, both the water volume and time buffering coeffcients are greater than 1. Their actual values depend on the hydrogeological conditions and the groundwater extraction method using dedicated wells. In typical examples in which confined aquifers are used as the groundwater reserve space, the water volume buffering coeffcient can exceed 200, while the time buffering coeffcient can exceed 20. The buffering effect also has an important impact on the recovery process of groundwater reserve after the utilization period. Further extensive and in-depth discussion and research are needed regarding the reliability and practicality of quantitative descriptions such as storage volume, reserve volume and buffering coeffcients.
China ranks frst in the world in terms of the number of reservoir dams. Homogeneous earth dams constitute one of the important dam types in China, most of which were built between the 1950s and 1970s. Affected by factors such as low design standards at that time, limited construction conditions, and long-term operational aging, these dams currently suffer from low design flood standards, prominent flood discharge defciencies, and weak collapse resistance of downstream dam slopes. Dam failures of homogeneous earth dams accounted for 85% of the total number of dam failures nationwide from 1954 to 2021, with overtopping erosion being the primary cause. With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the flood control standards of homogeneous earth dams are struggling to adapt to current climatic conditions, and the flood control defciencies are becoming increasingly prominent. In 2026, incidents at the Liulan Reservoir and other projects in Guangxi exposed the widespread problem of insufficient flood control capacity among similar projects in China when coping with extreme rainfall-induced floods. Based on national dam failure statistics and an analysis of the current safety status of homogeneous earth dams, combined with the challenges facing their flood control safety, this paper proposed a set of systematic measures: raising the flood control design standards, enhancing the capacity for exceeding flood discharge, implementing anti-scour protection and retroftting of dam crests and slopes, optimizing and improving the slope drainage system, upgrading the automatic dam monitoring system, improving forecasting and early warning mechanisms, and refning the emergency response mechanism for overtopping incidents. These measures are intended to address the flood control defciencies of homogeneous earth dams, fundamentally enhance their flood control and disaster resistance capabilities, and provide technical references for the risk removal and reinforcement of such dams in China.
Accelerating the establishment of the “three defense lines” for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting and the “forecast, early-warning, rehearsal and contingency planning”(“four pre”) system for flood control is important for advancing the development of digital twin water conservancy and enhancing the capacity for flood and drought disaster prevention. To solve problems including data barriers, insuffcient fusion of computational data, and poor connection between forecasting and operation scheduling in the practice of the “three defense lines” and “four pre”, this paper sorted out their chain relationship and proposed a key technical system for their coupling and integration. Based on the full-chain perception system of “precipitation in clouds, surface precipitation, and river runoff” composed of meteorological satellites, rain radars, rain gauge networks and hydrological station networks, this paper proposed collaborative networking and computational data correction methods for the “three defense lines”, and developed technologies including multi-source rainfall fusion, multi-temporal-spatial scale flood forecasting, progressive dynamic early warning, and a three-chain coupled operation mode. Focusing on flood forecasting demands for different forecast lead times, this paper established a driving mechanism integrating radar extrapolation, numerical weather forecasting and observed rainfall and water regime data. Small-scale fused rainfall data improves the short-term forecasting capacity of mountain floods and small & medium river floods, while medium and large-scale fused rainfall combined with hydrological monitoring can support the forecasting evolution of river floods. By taking the digital-twin Nangang River in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong as a case, this paper carried out the construction and application of the “three defense lines” and “four pre” for flood control in watersheds. The results show that the proposed mode can improve flood forecasting and scheduling capacity for small & medium rivers, and provide reference for the construction of digital twin water conservancy systems.
Taking the two national key soil erosion control areas in Heilongjiang Province, namely the rolling hilly region of Northeast China and the eastern piedmont of the Greater Khingan Mountains, as study areas, this paper focused on the management priority of key small watersheds based on soil erosion indicators. Indicators including the proportion of areas with moderate and severe soil erosion, gully density, proportion of areas with slopes larger than 8°, and vegetation coverage were classifed by adopting the natural breakpoint method. From the dual dimensions of current soil erosion status and potential soil erosion risk, the priority order of key small watersheds was determined by conducting priority grade comparison. The results show that in the two studied areas, the quantitative ratio of small watersheds classifed as extremely urgent, urgent, and moderately urgent for management is approximately 3:12:5. There are signifcant differences in the area distribution of small watersheds with different management priorities. The interquartile range, expected value, and median of the watersheds all follow the order: moderately urgent > urgent > extremely urgent. In both areas, the small watersheds classifed as extremely urgent for management account for a small total area yet contain a large share of erosion gullies. Their average gully density is far higher, while the average soil and water conservation rate is considerably lower than those of small watersheds classified as urgent and moderately urgent for management. The delineation of watershed management priorities can provide theoretical reference for carrying out differentiated comprehensive soil erosion treatment and improving the soil and water conservation function of territorial space.
Restoring river and lake ecosystems is an important component of building a Beautiful China and one of the critical pathways for promoting high-quality development of water conservancy in the new stage. Scientific assessment of the effectiveness of ecological restoration of rivers and lakes is an essential means of understanding their restoration status. Based on an analysis of the connotation of river and lake ecological restoration, integrating elements such as water resources, water environment, and water ecology, as well as following the principles of quantifiability, monitorability, and evaluability, this paper employs the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to construct an evaluation system for assessing the effectiveness of river and lake ecological restoration in plain river network areas. The system comprises 12 indicators across five criteria layers: water safety, water resources, water environment, water ecology, and public satisfaction. Taking the Dingbao River-Jianghai River, one of the frst-batch pilot rivers for the Mother River Revival Action initiated by the Ministry of Water Resources, as a case study, this paper applied the constructed evaluation system. After determining the weights of each evaluation indicator, the ecological restoration effectiveness level value of the Dingbao River-Jianghai River was calculated layer-by-layer weighted aggregation from the indicator layer, criterion layer, to the objective layer. The results indicate that the Dingbao River-Jianghai River has reached a healthy level after the ecological restoration, which is consistent with the actual conditions of the river. However, it remains necessary to continuously strengthen long-term river management and maintenance, reinforce the follow-up management of ecological restoration, and achieve the sustainable utilization of river and lake functions.
As the application of digital-intelligent technologies in China's water conservancy sector gradually transitions from pilot exploration to a new stage of systematic development, these technologies are becoming deeply embedded in the critical junctures of daily management, operational decision-making, and engineering control. While this integration substantially enhances governance effciency, it also exposes system operations to emerging risks and vulnerabilities. To systematically identify the risks inherent in digital-intelligent water conservancy applications and ensure their safe, reliable, trustworthy, and controllable operation, this study, based on the architecture and operational principles of digital twin water conservancy, identifies six strong dependency characteristics of these applications—namely, on data, models, computing power, networks, knowledge, and centralized control. The study further reveals the composite challenges arising from these dependencies, including data risks, model risks, computing risks, knowledge risks, network risks, and centralized-control risks. In response, a multi-dimensional risk prevention and control framework is proposed from four interconnected dimensions—institutional development, technical safeguards, capacity building, and resilience enhancement. Key measures encompass the formulation of national strategies and comprehensive security frameworks, the improvement of laws, regulations, and standards, the establishment of collaborative oversight and third-party audit mechanisms, full life-cycle data governance, trusted AI and comprehensive model governance, the development of autonomous and resilient computing power and network infrastructure, organizational restructuring and process re-engineering, the cultivation of digital-intelligent talent, humanmachine collaboration and knowledge management, the design of federal hybrid resilient architectures, routine red team vs. blue team cyber defense exercises, and the development of extreme scenario emergency plans. This research provides technical support for preventing and mitigating systemic risks in digital-intelligent water conservancy applications.
Virtual water provides an important perspective for revealing the embedded water flows in goods and services, offering a new dimension for analyzing water resources allocation and regional water security. This study fnds that China's virtual water flow patterns have undergone a fundamental transformation. At the international level, China has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer of virtual water. Domestically, a pronounced “north-to-south virtual water transfer” pattern has emerged, with northern regions exporting an annual average of approximately 42.6 billion m3 of virtual water to the south through the transfer of waterintensive agricultural products. These changes indicate that virtual water has profoundly influenced China's water resources allocation, industrial layout, and water security pattern. Although the virtual water strategy can help alleviate local water stress, identify conflicts between industrial layout and water resource carrying capacity, and promote regional collaborative governance, its application is subject to multiple constraints, including food security, the stage of economic development, data accounting, and the multifunctional attributes of water resources. The analysis indicates that the virtual water strategy should not be viewed as a substitute for physical water management; rather, it should be scientifcally positioned as a supplementary governance tool for optimizing water resources allocation and identifying water-related risks. Currently, China's virtual water governance still faces challenges, including insuffcient systemic understanding, inadequate integration of its strategic value, ineffective identifcation of hidden risks, and underdeveloped cross-regional coordination mechanisms. It is recommended that, on the basis of prioritizing food security and water conservation, institutional development in areas such as virtual water accounting, planning and assessment, and supply chain risk early warning should be advanced, supported by industrial upgrading, thereby promoting the coordinated implementation of virtual water and physical water management.
The outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, for the first time, incorporates river basin economy into national development planning, explicitly proposes to expand the river basin economic model based on local conditions. River basin economy is a new form of regional economy centered on water resources, using the natural geographical unit of a river basin as its spatial framework, integrating water security, water resource development, aquatic ecological protection, water environment management, and coordinated regional economic development. It represents a key pathway to overcome governance challenges across administrative boundaries in river basins and to realize the transformation of water resource value and regional coordination. Based on the cross-perspective of water resources economy and river basin governance, this paper systematically defined the core connotation of river basin economy from three dimensions—spatial, core, and target—and identified five essential characteristics: holism and systematism, interconnectedness and transmissibility, cross-boundary and synergy, ecological constraints, and multi-value attributes. It deeply analyzed the dual dynamic mechanism of endogenous and exogenous driving from four dimensions of resource endowment, national strategy, market mechanism, and collaborative governance. Based on this analysis and aligned with the top-level planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan, the paper proposed a high-quality development pathway for river basin economy suited to China's national conditions and hydrological realities, aiming to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for promoting coordinated development between upstream and downstream regions and facilitating the realization and conversion of ecological product values within river basins.
As a fundamental concept in the field of river and lake protection and governance, the existing definitions of rivers are mostly confined to physical morphological characterization, without addressing the essential attributes of rivers or considering their interconnections with watersheds. This results in insufficient adaptability and ambiguous identification in practical scenarios. Aiming at such practical problems, focusing on the formation mechanism, ontological composition, and evolution of rivers, as well as their overall watershed correlation, and supported by the hydrological cycle and runoff yield and concentration theory, river life theory, and watershed system theory, this paper refines and defines three core constituent elements of rivers, including water flow, river channel, and watershed. It clarifies that watershed property is the essential characteristic of rivers, and optimizes and improves the existing river concept. On this basis, targeting two core identification difficulties in practical scenarios, namely whether a water object belongs to a river and whether a water object is an independent river or a component of a river system, the paper systematically distinguishes and clarifies the boundaries between rivers and various non-river objects. The research results can effectively remedy the theoretical defects of the current river concept, provide basic support for river and lake surveys, river and lake inventory compilation, river and lake management and protection, and relevant scientific research, and avoid conceptual misuse in practice.